September 2012 became import surplus after two calendar quarters of export surplus. Exports in the Q3 of 2012 were 3.31 million pounds (Mo content) by estimate and imports were 3.42 million pounds (Mo content) also by estimate. The sharp drop in the exports was basically due to the recent low prices that hit several times below USD 11 per pound Mo.
The trade volumes during the first nine months of 2012 were exports: 11.80 million pounds and imports: 9.24 million pounds, still an export surplus situation but with a shrinking trend both in exports (down 36.8% from the same nine month period of 2011) and in imports (down 35.0%).
The world price changes of molybdenum oxide on a quarterly averaged basis during 2012 have been in a downward trend, i.e. Q1 (January to March): USD 14.10 per pound, Q2 (April to June): USD 13.65 per pound and Q3 (July to September): USD 11.67 per pound, giving a nine month averaged price of UD 13.14 per pound, compared to the annual averages of USD 15.33 per pound in 2011 and USD 15.60 per pound in 2010.
The growth in crude steel production in China has slowed down since the beginning of 2012 in a good contrast of the remarkably fast growth achieved until last year. Similarly, China's stainless steel production also slowed down in which some of the major mills started curtailment in May and June 2012 holding up demand for molybdenum from the stainless steel sector.
Unfortunately exporting molybdenum cannot be a solution especially when the price is low at around USD 11 per pound because the high production cost of molybdenum oxide in China at USD 12 to USD 13 per pound and the high export duty make the export business definitely unattractive. The recent low price is the reason of the reverse change of trade balance in the Q3 2012.
