The United States Is The Only Major Producer Whose Output Is Expected to Rise in 2012/13.

China, the world’s leading producer, is forecast to produce 31.5 million bales, down 5 percent from a year earlier. China’s area harvested is expected to decline 7 percent from a year ago to 5.0 million hectares in 2012/13. The United States is expected to produce 17.3 million bales in 2012/13, an increase of 10 percent from the preceding year. The United States is the only major producer whose output is expected to rise in 2012/13.

World 2012/13 cotton area harvested is forecast at 34.2 million hectares, a decline of 4 percent from the previous year. Global yield is forecast at 744 kg/ha.

World 2012/13 cotton mill use is forecast at 106.5 million bales, up 3 percent from the previous year. China’s cotton consumption is forecast at 35.5 million bales, down 7 percent from the previous year as domestic price support and national reserve policies combine to depress the margins of domestic cotton spinners. China’s large procurement of the 2012/13 crop is expected to limit the availability of cotton to local mills.

However, the forecast reduction in China’s mill use is more than offset by increases in other countries, resulting in an increase in global 2012/13 consumption. India’s 2012/13 cotton consumption is forecast at a record 22.0 million bales, up 10 percent from a year ago.

Pakistan is forecast to consume 11.5 million bales in 2012/13, up 14 percent from the previous year, due partly to a substantial increase in yarn exports to China. Brazil, Turkey, and the United States are forecast to consume 4.1 million bales, 6.0 million bales, and 3.4 million bales in 2012/13, respectively, up 3 percent, 7 percent, and 3 percent from a year ago.

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Turkey and the United States are forecast to consume 6.0 million bales and 3.4 million bales, respectively, up 3 percent and 6 percent from the previous year. World 2012/13 ending stocks are forecast at a record 79.6 million bales, an increase of 15 percent from a year earlier. China’s stocks are expected to account for 70 percent of the forecast increase in global stocks.