The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton forecast for 2012/13 indicates that global cotton consumption is expected to rise 3 percent from last season’s 8-year low as the global economy experiences a slow recovery. This season’s projected increase follows 2 consecutive years of decline when cotton prices reached unprecedented levels.
At 106.5 million bales, 2012/13 world cotton consumption is 14 percent below the 2006/07 peak. China remains the world’s largest cotton spinner, but declines have occurred there over the last three seasons as raw cotton and labor costs increased and spinning shifted elsewhere.
In 2012/13, India and Pakistan are expected to see their mill use climb and largely offset the decline in China. Combined, these three spinners continue to account for the bulk of 2012/13 global consumption, with a share forecast at 65 percent of the total. China alone accounts for a third of 2012/13 world consumption.
Domestic
U.S. Cotton Crop Forecast Reduced in December
The USDA December forecast of 2012 U.S. cotton production was reduced 1 percent (190,000 bales) this month to about 17.3 million bales, as production was adjusted in a number of States. The latest estimate indicates an 11-percent increase from the 2011 season in which the crop was affected considerably from the extreme drought conditions in the Southwest region. The 2012 national yield is projected at 793 pounds per harvested acre, 9 pounds below a year ago and 6 pounds below the 5-year average.
The harvested area estimate was unchanged in December at 10.4 million acres, one of the largest since 2006. Upland production is estimated at 16.6 million bales, 1.9 million bales above last season, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop remains estimated at 657,000 bales. For current production estimates by State and region.
Upland production is estimated to increase this season in two of the four Cotton Belt regions, as record yields occurred in three of the regions. In the Southwest, upland production is estimated at 5.7 million bales, up 2 million bales from 2011 as a lower abandonment this season raised harvested area. The Southwest yield, estimated at 534 pounds per harvested acre, would be its lowest since 2003.
In the Southeast, cotton production is expected to reach 5.5 million bales, near the record of 5.6 million bales produced in 2001. Although area was lower this season, a record yield of 974 pounds per harvested acre pushed the crop 10 percent above 2011. Similarly, the Delta area was reduced in 2012 but a record yield of 1,011 pounds per harvested acre kept the crop from decreasing significantly. In 2012, Delta production is estimated at 4.1 million bales, the second highest in 5 years.
In the West region, upland production is estimated at 1.2 million bales, compared with 1.5 million last season. Despite a lower area, a record upland yield of 1,517 pounds per harvested acre in the West kept the crop there above average.
U.S. Demand Forecast Increased
U.S. cotton demand for the 2012/13 season was raised 200,000 bales this month to 15.2 million bales; the current estimate is also 200,000 bales above last season. U.S. cotton mill use—based on data collected by USDA’s Farm Service Agency— remains forecast at 3.4 million bales for 2012/13, compared with the 3.3-millionbale estimate for 2011/12.
On the other hand, U.S. cotton exports were increased in December; exports are now projected at 11.8 million bales, slightly above last season’s final estimate. Despite lower world cotton trade in 2012/13, larger U.S. supplies are expected to boost the U.S. share of global trade this season. The current trade share is forecast at 31 percent, compared with last season’s 26 percent and 2010/11’s 40 percent.
U.S. Stocks Revised; Farm Price Range Narrowed
With U.S. cotton production exceeding demand in 2012/13, U.S. ending stocks will rise above the beginning level. Ending stocks are currently projected at 5.4 million bales, 2 million bales above last season. Both the stock level and the stocks-to-use ratio—estimated at 35 percent—would be the highest in four seasons. Based on the latest supply and demand outlook for 2012/13, the average upland cotton farm price is now forecast to range between 65 and 71 cents per pound, compared with the final 2011/12 price of 88.3 cents per pound.
U.S. Cotton Textile Trade Lower During First 9 Months of 2012
U.S. cotton textile trade continues to be affected by the sluggish global economy in 2012. During the first 9 months of 2012, cotton product imports reached about 6.2 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, 7 percent below the comparable period in 2011.
Cotton product exports saw a decline as well, with exports totaling only 1.2 billion pounds during January-September 2012, 13 percent below the 2011 comparable period. As a result, the net cotton trade deficit has declined 5 percent during the first 9 months of 2012 to 4.9 billion pounds.
The top five suppliers of cotton textile and apparel products to the United States continue to account for more than 60 percent of the total. For January-September 2012, the share equaled 63 percent, up from 62 percent posted in for the comparable period of 2011 as well as calendar 2011.
Each of the leading suppliers, with the exception of India, had lower volumes to the United States during the first 9 months of 2012; India’s volume rose about 2 percent. Based on the latest data, the shares of total imports were mixed. China accounted for 32 percent of the volume so far in 2012, similar to calendar 2011. Pakistan and India each accounted for an additional 9 percent, while Bangladesh and Mexico each provided an additional 7 percent of total U.S. imports.
International Outlook
World Cotton Production To Decline in 2012/13
Global 2012/13 cotton production is forecast at 116.9 million bales, down 6 percent from the previous year as more profitable competing crops crowd out cotton from area under cultivation. Output decline is expected in almost all major producing countries.
Australia and Brazil are forecast to produce 4.0 million bales and 6.5 million bales, respectively, down 27 percent and 25 percent from the previous year. India and Pakistan are expected to produce 25.5 million bales and 10.0 million bales, respectively, down 7 percent and 6 percent from the preceding year. India’s 2012/13 production decline is driven by reductions in both area and yield, while the reduction in Pakistan is mainly a function of lower yields.
China, the world’s leading producer, is forecast to produce 31.5 million bales, down 5 percent from a year earlier.
World 2012/13 cotton area harvested is forecast at 34.2 million hectares, a decline of 4 percent from the previous year. Global yield is forecast at 744 kg/ha.
Global 2012/13 Mill Use and Ending Stocks To Rise in 2012/13<O:P>
World 2012/13 cotton mill use is forecast at 106.5 million bales, up 3 percent from the previous year.
However, the forecast reduction in
China’s ending stocks are expected to increase 25 percent to 37.6 million bales. If realized
Ending stocks in the
World 2012/13 Trade To Decline<O:P>
World 2012/13 imports are forecast at 37.7 million bales, down 16 percent from the previous year. The forecast decline in world imports is driven largely by an expected decline in
Exports by
The