US commercial crude stocks are expected to have risen 2.3 million barrels for the week ended March 7, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts Monday.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly report at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday, while the US Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 am EDT Wednesday.
Oil Outlooks President Carl Larry expects a build to be supported by a rally in imports and more planned maintenance at US refineries. Larry also expects crude stocks at Cushing to fall around 1.75 million barrels.
Citi Futures Perspectives energy analyst Tim Evans also expects Cushing stocks to fall further. EIA data shows Cushing stocks have fallen nearly 10 million barrels since the end of January, and at 32.13 million barrels are at a near 16% deficit to the five-year average.
"A further drop in stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, for last week may provide some fundamental support for WTI, although we note that US total commercial crude oil stocks are seen extending a seven-week uptrend, suggesting that the wider US market is well supplied," Evans said.
Meanwhile, analysts on average expect US refinery utilization to fall by 0.5 percentage point.
An unspecified unit breakdown at ExxonMobil's 149,500 b/d Torrance, California, refinery led to flaring last week; however, the refinery was already under planned maintenance in late February, Platts reported last week.
The maintenance is expected to last several weeks.
"Although we anticipate impact to production, ExxonMobil expects to be able to meet its contractual commitments," company spokeswoman Gesuina Paras said.
Phillips 66's 238,000 b/d Bayway, New Jersey, refinery underwent planned maintenance last week, as did the company's 306,000 b/d Wood River, Illinois, refinery. The latter is a joint venture with Cenovus.
Shell's 145,000 b/d Puget Sound refinery in Anacortes, Washington, was also under planned maintenance, including work on a fluid catalytic cracking unit, a carbon monoxide boiler and alkylation unit.
Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, restarted an alkylation unit last week.
"Despite all of the talk about this year's turnarounds, there's not much production that is slipping back," he said.
US gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 1.8 million barrels last week. The EIA's five-year average shows gasoline stocks are three weeks into what is often a four-month spell of consistent draws. That said, the five-year average shows gasoline stocks typically fall closer to 3 million barrels over this reporting week.
At 59.54 million barrels, US Atlantic Coast gasoline stocks are 1% below the EIA five-year average. Total gasoline production, meanwhile, rose above 9 million b/d for the week ended February 28 for the first time in five weeks.
"My numbers see an increase in demand and that's where we're going to lose ground on inventory," Larry said. "Lower runs are going to help, but I think that will end up as a wash with higher imports."
US implied demand for gasoline at 8.33 million b/d is around 125,000 b/d below year-ago levels.
US distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 900,000 barrels last week.
