Imports fell 32% YoY over first 8 months of 2012
Flat products imports remained on a sharply downward trend
Licenses: no indication for short-term rise
Imports forecast to drop 26% in 2012, slight rise in 2013
Total steel imports from third countries into the EU fell by 31% YoY in Q2 2012, a similar reduction as registered in Q1. Customs data for July and August 2012 confirm that this trend continued over the summer period, resulting in a 32% YoY drop over the first 8 months of the year.
So far this year, flat product imports have seen the sharpest reduction in imports, dropping 38% below the corresponding tonnage in the January to August period of 2011. Meanwhile, long product imports fell 19% YoY during this period and semis 25%.
Imports of hot rolled wide strip retreated by 50% over the first 8 months of 2012, the strip mill product segment showing the strongest YoY decline. A relatively moderate reduction was registered in organic coated sheets (-24% YoY) and quarto plates (-19% YoY), signaling that imports pressure in these segments remains rather elevated.
Within the long products segment, the strongest decline was in merchant bars (25% YoY); the drop in rebar imports amounted to 8% YoY.
As far as the main countries of origin are concerned, total imports from Ukraine, Russia and China accounted for almost 65% of total imports of steel products arriving in the EU. Semis imports from the Ukraine and Russia accounted for more than 80% of total semis imports. Russia remained the largest exporter of cold-rolled sheet to the EU. China continued to dominate imports of coated sheets, accounting for 53% of HDG imports and 61% of organic coated sheets imports into the EU.
The latest license information shows that license applications remained at a low level in August and September 2012. Subdued apparent steel consumption levels in combination with the weak Euro are expected to keep imports at a relatively low level for the remainder of the year. Total imports are seen falling by almost 26% in 2012.
EU steel demand in 2013 stabilising at the year earlier level will lead to imports rising by around 3%.
