In view of the perspective of semiconductor lighting application, people are unanimously optimistic about the development of LED industry in middle and long term, the penetration of LED in lighting market will continue to rise, it is likely to exceed 50% in 2016, even it may be more than 70 % after 2020 with further growth. Energy conservation and technology economy will become two important drivers of this trend.
Currently, higher cost is still the obstruction for large-scale promotion of semiconductor lighting products, but the prices of LED has been steadily falling, according to the experience in international and domestic markets as well as customer and market feedbacks, it is believed that if the price of LED Bulbs is 1.5 times of the price of energy-saving lamps, the amount of LED bulb application can be greatly improved, in short, when the price of LED bulbs reaches 1.5 times of the energy-saving lamps, nearly half of traditional sources will be replaced. The current price of energy-saving lamps have been very cheap, LED lighting products are expected to be sold at that price in 2015 or 2016.
It is learned that the price of LED has declined quickly in the last two years, probably just half of the price two years ago, and it is believed that the price will continue to decline in the next two years. In terms of LED lights structure, the costs of drive and components are likely to continue to decline, it will be very close to the cost of energy-saving lamps by 2020. However, the prices fall of LED does not mean that it will destroy the industry's value, also it will not result in the industry becoming smaller because of the great development potential for lights, LED lighting technology is not the same with the traditional lighting technology, and LED lighting provides great design freedom and has great design potential and market potential. In addition to traditional forms of lighting, integrated, intelligent control and multifunctional products will be available in the near future, temporarily referred to as "LED Lighting Complex Device". This product is definitely unlike traditional lighting products, although it looks like the traditional lighting products in the alternative stage, it will be unlike the current traditional lamps in the future and will be beyond people's imagination.
In view of LED lighting market development, with the innovation and development of LED lighting products, the market will not be reduced but will be greatly increased. 2014 to 2015 will be a period the alternative market to achieve rapid growth, but the market growth rate will gradually decline after reaching a certain stage. Then the "LED lighting Complex Device" will greatly expand the market value. A substantial increase in cost-performance, enhancements in function, initial market norms and standards in the process will be achieved during the period.
