In the latest 4Q16 Lithium Battery Silver Member report, EnergyTrend analyzes lithium battery price trend and new energy logistic vehicles market trend in 2017.
2017 Lithium Battery Cell Price
Observing cylindrical battery cell price performance, due to short-term power application growth, the cylindrical battery market saw slight tight supply in 4Q16. Furthermore, in the future, the cylindrical battery market trend in 2017 shall be consistently focused on whether Chinese cylindrical battery technology can support IT application and how the energy density performance is.
In addition, regarding polymer battery price, since tight supply remained, routine price cut was less obvious in 4Q16. Therefore, in the future, the polymer market trend in 2017 that shall be consistently observed is whether the mainstream energy density upgrade to high level can be on schedule, but not influenced by Samsung’s mobile explosionissue.
China Is Optimistic about New Energy Logistics Vehicles in 2017
The battery consumption for new energy vehicles is estimated to be 16 GWh in 2016. Of these, 5.8GWh belonged to new energy passenger cars, and 10.3 GWh were from new energy buses. For the entire year, new energy passenger cars went through stable growth (YoY: 31%).
China has put a ban on excessive subsidy application of new energy vehicle, postponing the 2016 subsidy announcement, which in turn affected battery demand. As the investigation gradually comes to an end, demand for Chinese new energy vehicles may increase in 2017. The new energy vehicle market will therefore witness rapid growth in 2017 (YoY: +56%).
From 2016 till now, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has continually announced the “production companies and products of road motor vehicles”. Judging from 280-2891 batch of vehicles, more than half of Chinese logistics vehicles use NMC lithium batteries. Therefore, NMC batteries will slowly replace other battery systems.
Since the subsidy for logistics vehicles has been lowered from RMB 1,800 to RMB 1,200-1,500, battery cost pressure will be increased. Judging from NMC material that still can increase energy density, NMC batteries will remain competitive in the logistics vehicle applications to keep up with the trend of higher energy density and duration.
